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Our Predictions for
New York City Real Estate

Our Top-line Predictions

去年是纽约市h888皇冠电玩app下载市场动荡的一年. 在加州6月份通过这项立法后,新的租金监管令投资者的胃口大减. Even amid a roaring economy, 2H19 was a sluggish one.

As we head into 2020, there’s cautious optimism around the B6 offices. h888皇冠电玩app下载调查了h888皇冠电玩app下载的h888皇冠电玩app下载和资本咨询团队,以判断市场走向. Here’s what we found.

By the Numbers

Dollar Volume

+6.0%

Projected YoY Growth

B6预计,2020年纽约市的美元交易量将略有上升, 随着投资者对多户型住宅的新规定越来越适应. That would place total volume just under $37B across Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, and The Bronx.

Transactions

+11.0%

Projected YoY Growth

h888皇冠电玩app下载的团队认为,今年的交易额增长速度甚至超过了美元交易额, as the market partially recovers from a slow 2019. An 11% 交易量的增加仍将使纽约市场远低于2018年的水平.

$/Sq. Ft.

+0.0%

Projected YoY Growth

On the aggregate, B6预测,2020年每平方英尺的价格将保持相对平稳, after growing seven of the last ten years. A number of our brokers do anticipate larger change in $/SF though; a handful of our team members foresee a double-digit swing year-over-year.

Cap Rates*

+0.7%

Projected YoY Growth

Cap rates on rent-stabilized, 根据h888皇冠电玩app下载内部的B6调查,多户型房产今年几乎普遍预期会增长. In light of New York state’s new rent regulation guidelines, we’re likely to see some motivated sellers in the multifamily market.

*仅代表租金稳定的多户型物业的上限税率数据

By the Market

On the rise

The borough that will experience the most growth

The Bronx

当被问及哪个区将经历最大的美元交易量增长时, nearly half of our team (44%) put The Bronx at the top of the list.

“There’s a lot of large-scale development happening in The Bronx, which has people excited,” said Mitchel Flaherty, a Director at B6 who focuses on the Southern Bronx neighborhood.

About to fall

The borough least likely to grow

Manhattan

去年,纽约市最具标志性的行政区的美元交易量急剧下降, and the B6 staff expects history to repeat itself. Just 26% 其中的受访者表示,新年期间曼哈顿的美元交易量将会增加.

不过,B6的扎克•雷丁敦促投资者不要完全忽视曼哈顿. “With a longer-term outlook, you can capitalize on high cap rates.”

On the rise

The neighborhoods to watch

Gowanus, BK

Kingsbridge, BX

Astoria, QN

Maspeth, QN

h888皇冠电玩app下载问h888皇冠电玩app下载的员工,2020年哪个社区将是增长最快的, based on percent increase in dollar volume. These are the neighborhoods that received multiple votes.

尤其是戈瓦纳斯,它似乎准备好了爆发,但只有在重新规划的提议获得通过时才会爆发. 统一土地使用审查程序(ULURP)需要强制执行7个月,而且还没有开始,” said B6’s Bobby Lawrence. “何时以及如何(重新划分)将决定2020年在Gowanus的投资额.”

By Asset Class

On the rise

The asset class that will experience the most growth

Industrial

B6的大多数员工预计,工业资产将在2020年迎来又一个具有里程碑意义的一年. 85%的受访者预测工业产值将再次上升, even after reaching a record high last year.

About to fall

The asset class least likely to grow

Retail

Retail rebounded slightly in 2019, after four consecutive years of declining dollar volume across NYC. Will the turnaround continue in the new decade? Not so fast, says B6’s internal poll. Only 22% of our staff see dollar volume growing again this year.

“You’ve got to find creative ways to sell,” said B6’s Eugene Kim. “h888皇冠电玩app下载越来越多地看到,医疗用途正在取代传统的零售空间.”

Our Broker Predictions

h888皇冠电玩app下载的内部调查描绘了整个团队的期望, each broker has his or her own perspective. 所以h888皇冠电玩app下载采访了B6h888皇冠电玩app下载团队的六名成员,看看他们会追踪什么.

These are the storylines to watch in 2020.

Multifamily investors will shift their attention elsewhere.

2019年,多户型住宅在交易中的比例降至至少10年来的最低点. h888皇冠电玩app下载的几家经纪商预计,多户型投资者今年将重返市场——尽管他们将部分关注其他资产类别.

“h888皇冠电玩app下载已经感觉到,一些多户型投资者正在其他领域寻找机会, like in office space,” said Zach Redding.

h888皇冠电玩app下载已经感觉到,一些多户型的投资者正在其他领域寻找机会, like in office space.

Zach Redding

Director

Opportunity Zone Funds will start to put their capital to work.

对机会区投资给予全额税收优惠的截止日期是12月31日. 因此,很自然地,h888皇冠电玩app下载将看到今年OZ基金以主要方式部署资本, says B6’s Brian Whelan, particularly in Northern Manhattan.

曼哈顿北部机遇区(Opportunity zone)的美元交易量增长一直落后于整体市场的增长. But that’s bound to change soon.

Total Investment in opportunity zoned areas of NYC, 2019

$4.8B

Brooklyn

$2.1B

Queens

$1.8B

Bronx

$1.0B

Manhattan

$.56B

Upper Manhattan

$.44B

A major global brand will land in Queens.

去年,亚马逊可能放弃了将其第二家总部设在长岛市的计划, 但这并没有改变皇后区作为一个全球品牌落脚地的吸引力. As Eugene Kim notes, it still has the infrastructure and accessibility to welcome huge, corporate tenants.

目前,只有两家《h888皇冠电玩app下载》500强公司——捷蓝航空(JetBlue)和阿尔蒂斯(Altice)——总部位于皇后区. Kim expects that number to increase in 2020.

Developers will venture into “pioneering” neighborhoods.

去年,布鲁克林的开发投资额接近历史最高水平. With demand for development sites still high, 布莱恩·柯克(Bryan Kirk)和罗伯·摩尔(Rob Moore)看到布鲁克林的开发商将他们的重点转移到南布什维克(South Bushwick)和百老汇枢纽(Broadway Junction)附近的社区.

这种类型的社区提供了更低的基础和更多的机会来利用长期的社区增值.

Bryan Kirk

Director

Rob Moore

Director

Methodology

All metrics presented in this report — Dollar Volume, Transactions, Price per Square Foot, 和上限税率-以12月31日之前的成交价格为基础, 2019. Only portfolios located within Manhattan, Brooklyn, Bronx, or Queens with a sale price of at least $1,000,000 were included in our calculations. h888皇冠电玩app下载认为曼哈顿和曼哈顿北部市场的分界线是东侧的第96街和西侧的110街. 数据来自Reonomy、RCA、ACRIS、NYC Open Data和h888皇冠电玩app下载自己的数据仓库.

h888皇冠电玩app下载使用以下定义来记录每个已交易建筑的属性类型:

  • C1, C2, C4, C5, C9
  • D1, D2, D3, D5, D8, D9
  • K4 and all “S” classes (S0, S1, S2, S3, S4, S5, S9)
  • select " K "类(K1, K2, K3, K5, K6, K9) /选择" R "类(R5, R7, R8, RK)
  • All “O” classes: (O1, O2, O3, O4, O5, O6, O7, O8, O9) and RB
  • 所有“E”类(E1、E3、E4、E6、E7、E9),所有“F”类(F1、F2、F4、F5、F8、F9)和RW
  • G0, V0, V1, and other properties purchased for development

We excluded the following property types from our analysis altogether:

  • 合作公寓/共管公寓:C级(C6、C8), D级(D0、D4), R级(R0、RM)
  • Residential Buildings: All “A” classes (A0, A1, A2, A3, A4, A5, A6, A7, A8, A9), all “B” classes (B1,B2,B3,B9), and select “C” classes (C0, C3)
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